The Pound Sterling (GBP) struggles to extend its gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, even as inflation in the United Kingdom cements the case for a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike at the next meeting and the Greenback recovers amid heightened geopolitical tensions. At the time of writing, GBP/Ub SD hovers around 1.3400, broadly unchanged.
Sterling struggles as geopolitical tensions revive Dollar demand despite rising UK inflation
US economic data remains scarce on Wednesday, but market participants are getting some clues about US equities, which trade in the green, boosted by a surge in technology stocks sparked by AI hype. US Treasury yields hold firm, with the US 10-year T-note yield at 5.10%.
Geopolitics are also boosting the Greenback. Even though news suggested a possible resolution of the US-Iran conflict on Tuesday, reports indicated that the Pakistani Army Chief met with Iranian officials in Tehran, where he presented a “compromise proposal,” while N12 news reported that he delivered the US a “final warning.” This means that if Iran does not agree to a peace deal, attacks could resume.
In the UK, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 3.1% to 3.5% YoY in September, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), driven mainly by a surge in energy prices sparked by the Middle East conflict.
The data comes after the latest jobs report in the UK showed a modest rise in wages alongside other signs of labor market resilience.
Given the backdrop, traders are pricing in a 95% chance of a quarter-percentage-point rate hike by the Bank of England at its November 5 meeting.
BoE interest rate probabilities - Source: Prime Terminal
Attention now turns to British Finance Minister John Healey's first budget, due next week. Earlier this month, Healey said his budget would bolster UK's resilience to the Iran war’s energy-price shock and give the country "a bit of breathing space."
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
GBP/USD daily chart
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3387, holding a bearish near-term bias as it remains capped beneath the latest triple simple moving average at 1.3409 and the downward resistance trend line break at 1.3405. The pair trades under a broader cluster of structural barriers defined by the upward support trend line breaks at 1.3620 and 1.3805, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 57 suggests recovering but still moderate bullish momentum that has yet to overcome the overhead supply.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the downward resistance trend line break near 1.3405, followed closely by the triple simple moving average at 1.3409; a daily close above this band would open the way toward the next resistance zone at the upward trend line break around 1.3620, ahead of 1.3805. On the downside, the former downward resistance trend line break at 1.3271 now acts as immediate support, and a move back below this level would reinforce the broader bearish tone and expose lower levels in the coming sessions.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Euro.
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