Bring Back The Curtain

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I woke up this morning with particularly strong feelings about what to do in Ukraine. After all, triggering a broader war with Putin’s Russia over Ukraine itself seems foolhardy. The risks are simply far too massive. Putin himself threatened the use of Russia’s nuclear forces against any who resisted. On the other hand, failing to help gives carte blanche to other similar actions – in Taiwan, Georgia, the Baltics, Israel, UAE, Bahrain and so on.

So, what can be done? How can we avoid escalation while also responding aggressively?

After an admittedly short period of time – necessitated by the rapidly changing reality – I have the following recommendation. If Putin wants to restore the USSR, let’s restore the Iron Curtain. It can be done almost instantly, and walked back almost as quickly. There are three steps:

1. No information (take down the Russian Internet)
2. No travel (ban all visas for Russian nationals for all Western countries except under extraordinary circumstances - revoke visas of those currently in the West)
3. No money (deny SWIFT access to all banks and institutions, provide Ukraine with the weapons to hit pipelines in Belarus and Ukraine (or even the Baltics), should they choose to do so)

There are risks associated with these activities. 

First and foremost, Europe could suffer short-term energy shortages. Nonetheless, Europe has the shale and nuclear resources to be very nearly energy independent. With U.S. help the shale resources could be very quickly developed. Somehow, the Europeans acted as if reliance on Russian energy was somehow cleaner than home production. It wasn’t and it isn’t. Yes, fracking comes with risks of local earthquakes. I suspect that those risks are not as great as the expansion of war to Poland and the Baltics.

Second, innocent Russians could be swept up in travel bans. This is most easily dealt with by allowing a short period of appeal.

Third, Putin could get angrier. This is true. However, responding to financial and cultural sanctions with weapons would be a poor idea. The U.S. might have little will, but the U.S. military – as it showed in a single conflict in Syria – is orders of magnitude more advanced than the Russian one. 

Escalation would not be in Putin’s interests unless he actually wants a nuclear conflict. 

Nobody believes he does.

The messaging of these activities would have to be completely clear: if Russia wants to return to the USSR, we’ll #bringbackthecurtain. I imagine the vast majority of Russians, especially the powerful oligarchs, won’t be supportive of this sort of shift.

The best part of these initiatives is that the modern nation of Russia can be restored in a few days... should the dream of domination fade.

It is in American, European, Israeli, Taiwanese, Arab, Indian, Southeast Asian and central Asian interests for this invasion to be responded to in a highly aggressive way. Any sort of military response carries too much risk. 

#bringbackthecurtain is a far safer, more limited – but nonetheless severe – response.

If Russia doesn't want to act like a member of the community of nations - then it doesn't have to be any more. And, yes, information and money could continue to be exchanged with China. But as much as Russia and China have aligned some of their strategic interests, I imagine few oligarchs dream of estates on the outskirts of Beijing.

#bringbackthecurtain No information, no travel, no money.