Brexit Compromise? Not So Fast! Collapse of UK Governments Just as Likely

Word hit this AM of a Brexit compromise between the UK and the EU. I didn't bite. A deal is one thing, approval another.

This morning, the Financial Times reported UK and EU Hammer Out Draft Terms of Brexit Divorce.

The Guardian commented May Tells Her Cabinet, This is the Deal – Now Back Me

This THE Deal?

It could be, but color me skeptical. I did not bite on those headlines.

Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn

We will look at the details of what has been agreed when they are available. But from what we know of the shambolic handling of these negotiations, this is unlikely to be a good deal for the country. #BrexitDeal

— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) November 13, 2018

"Unlikely to be a good deal"

Jo Johnson

With great regret, I'm resigning from the Government - I have set out my reasons in this article and the video below. https://t.co/hzimcS8uiR pic.twitter.com/hUN9RLzDfq

— Jo Johnson (@JoJohnsonUK) November 9, 2018

Jo Johnson is brother of Boris Johnson. Unlike his brother, Jo is pro-Europe. He resigned May's cabinet because he thinks the deal is a bad one.

Boris Johnson

No one is fooled by this theatre. Delay after staged managed delay. A deal will be reached and it will mean surrender by the UK. We will be doomed to remain in the customs union and under Brussels’ regulatory control. People did not vote for colony status 1/2

— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) November 13, 2018

Boris Johnson resigned as May's Foreign Secretary on July 9.

David Davis

This is the moment of truth. This is the fork in the road. Do we pursue a future as an independent nation or accept EU domination, imprisonment in the customs union and 2nd class status. Cabinet and all Conservative MPs should stand up, be counted and say no to this capitulation.

— David Davis (@DavidDavisMP) November 13, 2018

David Davis called this a "moment of truth". He was May's former Brexit Secretary. He resigned on July 8 in disgust of May's handling.

It would seem that May would have been able to appoint a cabinet that would easily back her, but her policies are so bad that did not happen.

Attacks Everywhere

This afternoon the Financial Times reported DUP and Eurosceptics Attack Draft Brexit Treaty Sight Unseen.

Justine Greening, a pro-EU Conservative MP, warned the “entire planet” could see it was a bad deal. “Even if some people in my party can’t see this is a bad deal, everyone else around this entire planet can.”

Sight Unseen Agreement?

Yep. The agreement is provisional. May did not enough integrity to even post it.

We do know one thing: May’s Brexit Compromise Comes with High Price.

Stench to High Heavens

What do we have?

It's hard to say precisely because there is no public record. The FT labeled it as a “backstop to the backstop” .

“Let’s not confuse white smoke with fog over the Thames,” said one official.

I suggest we can expect stench to high heavens when deals are not disclosed.

Will it pass?

It could.

Will it be a good deal? No matter what's in the deal, I am confident of my answer "No."

New Elections

If the deal does not pass, Theresa May is likely to call for new elections.

And that is the key to understanding some of the opposition. Labour wants new elections.

The pro-Europe crowd hopes to hold a new referendum. That's unlikely but every vote counts.

DUP feels dumped. May needs those votes.

Any Miracles?

Are there any miracles in May's hat?

It depends more on compromises the EU is willing to make than anything May can do or say. No matter which way May bends, she upsets somebody.

The EU is likely to postpone compromises until the last moment.

By then, all the hard Brexit groundwork will be in place. No one will fear a hard Brexit anymore. And that's a good thing.