Brent Gained Nearly 14% In October

Brent is trading lower near $111 per barrel after ending October at a six-month high. Iranian and Qatari officials are holding a third day of talks on a potential de-escalation of the conflict, while OPEC+ has kept its December production targets unchanged. This is allowing the market to remove part of the geopolitical risk premium after Brent gained nearly 14% in October.

3 Takeaways

• Brent is down around 2% and trading near $111–112 per barrel.

• OPEC+ kept its December production targets unchanged.

• Qatar-mediated talks are continuing for a third day, but attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf have not stopped.

Oil starts November with profit-taking after a very strong October.

Brent gained 13.6% last month and finished Friday at its highest level in around six months. On Monday, prices pulled back toward $111.15–111.80 after the weekend passed without another major military escalation and amid renewed hopes for diplomatic progress.

Iranian and Qatari officials continue consultations aimed at a possible de-escalation of the conflict. Tehran has stressed that it remains prepared for both diplomacy and defence, meaning the market is not yet treating the talks as a guarantee of a lasting reduction in tensions.

Supply and demand

OPEC+ kept its December production targets unchanged on Sunday. More significant decisions on quotas have been postponed until 2027, when the alliance will need to balance the recovery in Middle Eastern exports against the risk of excess supply.

The physical supply picture is also gradually improving. Asia’s crude imports recovered to almost pre-war levels in October, reaching around 26.4 million barrels per day.

Refined products remain the weak point. Imports of gasoline and distillates are still around 10% below previous levels, while Singapore diesel prices were roughly 84% above pre-war levels at the end of October.

Macroeconomic factors

Brent begins the week caught between two opposing forces.

Diplomatic progress could gradually remove part of the geopolitical risk premium. However, continued attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are preventing the market from fully returning to normal supply valuations.

US economic data and Tuesday’s midterm elections will provide additional catalysts. A stronger dollar could deepen the oil correction, while renewed escalation around Iran would quickly bring buyers back into the market.

Technical outlook

Brent is trading directly around the $110–111 support area.

A sustained break below $110 would strengthen the corrective scenario and open the way toward $108–109.

Initial resistance is located around $112–113. For stronger bullish momentum to return, Brent would need to recover above $114.

Short-term technical indicators currently remain predominantly bearish.

FAQ

Why is Brent falling after a strong October?

The market is taking profits as talks over Iran continue and no major new escalation occurred over the weekend.

What did OPEC+ decide?

The group kept its December production targets unchanged.

Which levels are key?

The $110–111 area remains the main support zone. Resistance is located at $112–114.