Bitcoin (BTC.X) continues to show strong bullish sentiment following the latest rebound. The price of the pioneer cryptocurrency has risen from about $65,000 at the end of March to trade at the current level of $76,000.
And according to data from various platforms, the bulls continue to dominate market sentiment. According to CFD brokerage platform Capital.com data, neary 84% of orders on the platform are Buy orders versus about 16% sell orders, at the time of this writing.
Data from the futures trading platform CME Group also supports a bullish market sentiment as open interest continues to rise. According to Coinglass, Bitcoin open interest on CME Group stands at about $9.9 billion, followed closely by Binance, with $9.7 billion. Overall, there is more than $57 billion in Bitcoin open interest across the 24 exchange platforms.
Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis
Technically, Bitcoin is about to complete an upward breakout from a descending channel formation. If the breakout is confirmed, the BTC-USD will also advance above the 100-day moving average line, reaffirming the bullish market sentiment.
The price of the pioneer cryptocurrency has also recently breached a key Fibonacci retracement level, 0.236, at about $75,254, which further supports the current bullish momentum.
Therefore, continued upward movement could create profit opportunities at the 0.382 Fib level at about $85,023 or higher at the 0.50 Fib level at $92,919, which would potentially signal the end of the current bearish cycle.
The Relative Strength Index indicator also supports the continuation of the current upward movement, as it is yet to reach overbought conditions.
Bitcoin transaction volume in the futures markets is also rising, reaching its March highs for the first time on Friday, and again on Monday, as per data from CME Group.
Macro and geopolitical factors to watch out for
While technical data points towards more upward movements, the Bitcoin price continues to be affected by various macro and geopolitical factors, including the US interest rates and the US-Iran war, amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The next Fed Funds Rate decision is expected on April 29, with analysts forecasting an unchanged rate of 3.75%, as was the case in the previous update. An unexpected rate cut will likely boost demand for risk assets, among which Bitcoin is one of the leading ones in the digital asset space. An unexpected hike would likely have the opposite effect on Bitcoin.
On the other hand, tensions continue in the Strait of Hormuz, with both the US and Iran accusing each other of infidelity on previous discussions held for a ceasefire.
Bitcoin is also experiencing pressure from excessive outflows this year. According to CryptoQuant data, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap is seeing more negative netflow days across all exchanges.
This pattern has become more prevalent, especially since February, coinciding with the period when BTC-USD traded consistently below $70,000.
However, the level of negative netflows has started to go down, with the figure falling to about -2,600 on Monday compared to -7,800 on the previous Monday.
In summary, while Bitcoin still remains in that bearish cycle, it is approaching key technical zones that could confirm the return to a bullish cycle. Traders can monitor how it performs above the 0.238 Fib level, ahead of potentially breaching the 0.382 Fib level, with a price above $80,000 now a realistic target.
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