Good morning, crypto traders! The crypto market is starting the week on a weaker note amid risk-off flows and weakness across stocks. However, prices are approaching an interesting support area where we could see stabilization and a temporary recovery. This is also an important week for US inflation data. Cooler-than-expected inflation could support a rebound across crypto and other risk assets, while a hotter reading would likely add further pressure to the market.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, Bitcoin is slowing down after completing an extended wave (3), suggesting that a higher-degree wave (4) correction may be underway. The slow, choppy, and overlapping price action increasingly points toward a complex WXY structure, with wave Y potentially approaching completion near the important $74K–$73K support area. Alternatively, wave (5) may already be complete, which would open the door to a deeper, higher-degree correction. Nevertheless, both scenarios leave room for at least some short-term stabilization and recovery, provided selling pressure does not accelerate further.
Meanwhile, the BTC/GOLD ratio is showing some interesting developments. After a period of gold outperforming Bitcoin, the daily chart suggests that the ratio may be slowing down within a wave 4 correction before potentially resuming higher into wave 5 of (C)(3). The 8H chart also shows a possible completion of wave "c" following a bearish wave "b" triangle. If the ratio finds support and turns higher, Bitcoin could regain strength relative to gold over the coming weeks and months.
Overall, Bitcoin is approaching an important technical support zone, while the BTC/GOLD ratio is showing early signs of a potential shift in relative strength. A recovery in stocks and gold, together with cooler US inflation, would provide a more supportive environment for a broader crypto rebound. For now, the $74K–$73K area remains particularly important to watch.
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