Bitcoin starts the week around $80,000 and remains under pressure after two consecutive sessions of heavy outflows from US spot ETFs. At the same time, markets are preparing for the Federal Reserve meeting: rates are expected to remain unchanged in October, but the prospect of another hike in December continues to weigh on crypto demand.
3 Takeaways
Bitcoin is trading around $79,900, down roughly 0.6%.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $635.6 million in outflows on 22 October and another $137.9 million on 23 October.
Despite the late-week outflows, the overall weekly ETF balance remained positive thanks to strong inflows earlier in the week.
Introduction
BTC is once again testing the psychological $80,000 level after failing to extend its recovery above $82,000.
The short-term backdrop remains mixed. On the one hand, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below 5%, which usually improves conditions for risk assets. On the other hand, markets still see a high probability of another Fed rate hike in December, while elevated oil prices continue to keep inflation risks alive.
ETF and institutional flows
Institutional flows deteriorated sharply toward the end of last week.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $635.6 million in net outflows on 22 October, followed by another $137.9 million on 23 October. Most of the pressure came from BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC.
However, the broader weekly picture was not entirely negative. The funds attracted $526.7 million on 19 October, $23.2 million on 20 October and $524.8 million on 21 October.
As a result, the net balance over the five sessions remained positive at around $301 million.
This suggests that institutional demand has not disappeared, but it has become much more sensitive to price action and the macroeconomic backdrop.
Macro
The key event this week is Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision.
Markets are pricing in little chance of a rate hike this week, but the probability of a December move remains close to 80%.
For Bitcoin, Jerome Powell’s guidance will be especially important. A softer message could support a recovery above $80,000, while confirmation that another hike remains likely in December would keep pressure on BTC.
Later in the week, markets will also receive the PCE inflation report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Technical outlook
Bitcoin is trading directly around the key $79,000–80,000 area.
Immediate support is located near $79,500, followed by $78,000. A break below $78,000 would increase the risk of a move toward $76,000.
Initial resistance is seen around $80,700–81,500. A more important barrier remains at $82,000–83,500.
FAQ
Why is Bitcoin back below $80,000?
The main pressure comes from heavy ETF outflows late last week and expectations that the Fed may tighten policy again in December.
Has institutional demand disappeared?
No. Despite two strong outflow sessions, the overall balance for last week remained positive at around $301 million.
Which level matters most now?
Support is located at $79,000–80,000 and $78,000. Resistance is at $80,700–81,500 and $82,000–83,500.
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