Betting On The Midterms

Menzie Chinn
By Menzie Chinn of Econbrowser
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin •

Prediction markets show a sharp decline in Republican odds for the Senate following the start of the US-Iran War.

Source: DepositPhotos

From Polymarket today, 3pm CT:

The sharp deterioration in Republican odds for holding the Senate occurred almost immediately after the beginning of the US-Iran War. The first reversal between Republican/Democratic odds occurred on March 15.

Kalshi places odds of Democratic control of both houses now at 59%.

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