Betting On Recession 2026: Up To 32% Fm 21% Pre-War

Menzie Chinn
By Menzie Chinn of Econbrowser
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin •

Recession odds for 2026 have surged to 32% on prediction markets, a sharp rise from pre-war levels. While platforms like Kalshi show increased concern, Goldman Sachs maintains a more conservative 25% probability forecast.

But down from peak 37%. From Polymarket:

From Kalshi over comparable period:

Kalshi rises to 31.6% from 23.1% on February 27.

Kalshi uses 2 consecutive quarter criterion, while Polymarket uses either NBER declaration or 2 quarter rule.

Goldman Sachs rates a 25% probability of recession.

For comparison, the January WSJ survey mean probability of a recession over the next 12 months was 27%.

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