Bearish EIA Report Smacks Natural Gas Prices

Natural gas prices returned into the red today, with the June contract closing just over three cents lower on the day. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

The main culprit was a bearish EIA report, showing a large build of 127 bcf for the week ending 4/26. Despite the large number, it was actually indicative of a slightly tighter supply/demand balance when compared to the prior two weeks. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

It certainly was not "tight" by any means, as it remained much looser than the same gas week in prior years. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

Prices did rebound off their lows, however, after being down as much as 5.5 soon after the release of the number. Power burns have been more impressive this week thanks to some heat in the southern states, and we have another burst of early heat in the Southeast on the horizon for next week, as seen in the current 6-10 day forecast from the GEFS. 

This shows up in our forecast demand chart quite easily, with another bump up in GWDDs mid to late next week. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

This raises the possibility that we will continue to see some strength in the burns into next week as well, likely one factor that helped us to rebound somewhat today, as the market was forced to weigh this information against the bearish EIA report.