Brexit uncertainties are rising and deteriorating confidence, long EUR/GBP.
If Prime Minister May cannot get Parliament to back her deal with the EU by March 12, she'll present the idea of a no-deal Brexit to lawmakers on March 13. If that is similarly rejected, there'll be a vote on extending Brexit negotiations on March 14.
Prime Minister May might ask for a short, one-off extension to the Brexit deadline, which is likely to be till the end of June.
This concession seems to have satisfied rebellious Tories who were planning to vote in order to bind May's hands.
But Brexiteers seem to be unperturbed, perhaps because they think they could still get a no-deal Brexit in the first half of this year.
The pound pared some gains as May said her preference was for a no extension to talks
A no-deal may lead to a second referendum. This might be a nice idea, but it’s hardly guaranteed to fly.
Moreover, it’s important to consider what sort of questions might be on offer, especially as the government remains committed to "delivering on Brexit."
EUR/GBP may have broken its weekly support, but it could be a false break if a no-deal is put on the table.
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