After Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) released an intra-quarter update yesterday, with February same-store sales and first quarter earnings per share guidance below expectations, analysts have issued widely varied takes on the company. Among them, Maxim downgraded Chipotle to Sell, SunTrust raised its price target and reiterated a Buy rating on the stock.
EXPECTED LOSSES: In a regulatory filing last night, Chipotle disclosed that during the first quarter the company anticipates restaurant-level operating margin to be in the mid-single digit range. The company also expect to incur a loss of ($1.00) per share or worse, due to higher expenses driven by increased marketing and promotions, higher food costs and higher labor costs to ensure stores were fully staffed as customers redeemed their free burrito offer. Chipotle also reported that its same-restaurant sales were down 26.1% in February compared to the same month of last year.
BEARISH VIEWS: Maxim analyst Stephen Anderson downgraded Chipotle to Sell from Hold after the company reported that same-restaurant sales fell by 26.1% in February and 24.4% in the first two weeks of March. The analyst believes that Chipotle is more vulnerable to headline risk than expected and cautions that the company faces an "extended recovery period" in which positive comps are unlikely until 2017. Anderson lowered his price target on the shares to $350 from $450. Deutsche Bank analyst Karen Short says a turnaround for Chipotle is still "down the road" and a sales recovery will take longer than expected, following the company's intra-quarter same-store sales update. Although March started to gain some momentum following Chipotle's promotional blitz, another food scare within the Boston marketplace weighed on results once again, Short tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes additional food safety issues will be met negatively and there is still "significant risk" to profitability. Short has a Sell rating and $400 price target on the shares.
BULLISH TAKES: SunTrust analyst Jake Bartlett believes Chipotle's recovery "remains intact", raising his price target on the shares to $550 from $520. Although February same-store sales and first quarter earnings per share guidance are lower than estimated, the analyst expects investors to take a longer-term view on valuation. The recovery is slower than expected, but he believes it was negatively impacted by the free burrito giveaway, Bartlett told investors in a research note. He reiterates his Buy rating on the stock. Piper Jaffray analyst Nicole Miller Regan reiterates her bull thesis on Chipotle's shares following the company's first quarter update. Miller Regan is "encouraged" to see that trends have "steadily improved" from January's low-mark. Bears will highlight that same-store-sales pulled back to down 27.3% in the second week of March, but the analyst still believes Chipotle will be able to deliver a relatively steady improvement in trends over the course of the year. Miller Regan has an Overweight rating and $590 price target on the stock.
PRICE ACTION: In late morning trading, Chipotle's shares are down 1.3% at $496.33, well off their earlier session low of $473.11.
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