The Aussie Dollar trades near two-month highs of 0.7129, supported by a weaker US Dollar, amid a scarce economic docket in the US, following last week’s softer Retail Sales data. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7106, up 0.32%.
AUD/USD gains as weaker Dollar offsets renewed Oil risks
Sentiment remains mixed while crude Oil prices edged higher on news that US President Donald Trump said that he is in no rush to end the US-Iran war. This reignited inflationary fears in the US, as Treasury yields – particularly the 30-year bond yield - reached levels last seen in 2007 during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC).
The US economic docket featured the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index, which rose to its highest level in four years, though the sub-components provided a mixed reading. Ahead, the US economic docket will feature the Federal Reserve’s last meeting minutes on August 19, followed by jobless claims data and Flash PMIs, each on August 20 and 21, respectively.
US lower-tier data is expected on Tuesday, August 18, with traders eyeing housing data and the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production report. In Australia, the docket will feature the Westpac Consumer Confidence for August, followed by the Wage Price Index for the second quarter, which is expected to rise 0.8% QoQ, as seen in the previous quarter.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
AUD/USD daily chart
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7105. The pair retains a bullish near-term bias as it holds above a dense floor of rising trend-line supports clustered between roughly 0.7058 and 0.7087, while also trading over the tightly grouped 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages around 0.6992. Price is effectively testing a longer-term ascending trend line that now aligns near the market, and the Relative Strength Index at 65 suggests firm but not yet extreme bullish momentum as buyers press the advance.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the longer-term rising trend line coming in just above spot near 0.7111; a sustained break higher would open the way for a continuation of the uptrend. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the current trend-line pivot zone around 0.7105, followed by a layered band of ascending supports at 0.7087 and 0.7086, with further protection at 0.7058; the cluster of major simple moving averages around 0.6992 represents a deeper, more strategic support area that would need to give way to undermine the broader constructive tone.
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