August 2020 ECRI's WLI Improvement Continues Is Nearing Expansion

Managing Partner at Econintersect LLC • Aug 21, 2020 at 8:23 PM EDT

ECRI's WLI Growth Index, which forecasts economic growth six months forward improved but remains in contraction. ECRI also released their coincident and lagging indices this week.

ECRI's WLI Growth Index, which forecasts economic growth six months forward, improved but remains in contraction. ECRI also released their coincident and lagging indices this week.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices Please note that the coronavirus is a black swan event and the decline is more immediate and not lagging off six months as one would expect from this index.

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) ticked up to 137.6, as the growth rate rose to -2.7%.

The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.

For a quick glance at the WLI's performance, please see the chart below.

U.S. Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The July economy's rate of growth (released in August) showed the rate of growth improved but continues to show economic contraction.

U.S. Lagging Index:

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The July economy's rate of growth (released in August) showed the rate of growth declined and remains in contraction.

source: ECRI

Disclaimer:

Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate. ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.

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