August 2019 ECRI's WLI Growth Rate Goes Deeper Into Contraction

By Steven Hansen of Global Economic Intersection

Managing Partner at Econintersect LLC • Aug 30, 2019 at 2:32 PM EDT

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward declined and is in contraction.

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward declined and is in contraction. ECRI also released their lagging index this week.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

In essence, there is no growth forecast in the business cycle six months from today.

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The July economy's rate of growth (released in August) showed the rate of growth declined.

(Click on image to enlarge)

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

ECRI produces a monthly future inflation index which leads U.S. inflation cycle turning points. The July index (released in August) shows deflation pressure (positive numbers show inflation pressure).

(Click on image to enlarge)

U.S. Lagging Index:

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The July economy's rate of growth (released in August) showed the rate of growth was unchanged.

(Click on image to enlarge)

source: ECRI

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