AUD/USD Edges Higher As The RBA Hikes, But Gains Stay Limited

AUD/USD edges higher by 0.25% on Tuesday, settling close to 0.7185 after finding support around 0.7150 during the European session. Price has been carving out a narrow range across the past few sessions, with overlapping wicks and small-bodied candles pointing to indecision as traders digested the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision.

The RBA hiked the cash rate by 25 basis points from 4.10% to 4.35% on Tuesday, citing persistent inflation pressures and stronger-than-expected private demand growth. The Board signaled it remains data-dependent on further moves, with the Monetary Policy Statement noting that capacity pressures had re-emerged. Australian trade data on Thursday and Chinese trade figures over the weekend will offer the next read on external demand.

On the US Dollar (USD) side, crude Oil prices stayed elevated as the Strait of Hormuz closure dragged into a third month, with diplomatic talks yielding no firm ceasefire timeline. Tuesday's Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI came in at 53.6, just shy of consensus, while JOLTS job openings beat expectations at 6.87M. Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, with consensus pointing to a soft 60K print after the previous month's 178K, will set the tone for the US Dollar into next week.

AUD/USD 15-minute chart

Technical Analysis

In the fifteen-minute chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7184. The pair holds a modest bullish intraday bias while price stays above the daily open at 0.7169, suggesting dip-buying interest on shallow pullbacks. The latest Stochastic RSI reading around 9.49 sits in oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is waning after the recent consolidation near current levels.

On the downside, initial support is located at the daily open around 0.7169, where a break would undermine the constructive tone and expose deeper losses toward the prior session’s lows. With no nearby technical resistance levels from moving averages or oscillators on this timeframe, any recovery from oversold conditions could see the pair extend gains in search of fresh intraday supply zones above the market.

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7184, holding a clear bullish bias as spot remains above both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7066 and the 200-day EMA at 0.6823. The positioning over these key trend gauges suggests the broader uptrend remains intact, while the Stochastic RSI near 50.8 signals neutral momentum after easing from prior overbought conditions, hinting at consolidation rather than immediate exhaustion.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 50-day EMA around 0.7066, where a break would expose the deeper structural floor at the 200-day EMA near 0.6823. With no nearby technical resistances provided by the current dataset, traders may look to emerging swing highs on the price chart itself to define fresh topside barriers as long as the pair continues to defend these moving-average supports.