AUDUSD has been climbing within a well-defined ascending channel since late June, with the pair recently tagging the channel top near .7021 before easing back into a pullback.
Price is now consolidating around the mid-channel area, testing whether buyers can hold the line and keep the broader uptrend intact. The Fibonacci retracement tool drawn from the mid-July swing low to high shows where dip-buyers could return.
The 38.2% level is at .6981, close to current price action, while the 50% level sits at .6969, an area that lines up with the ascending trend line connecting the higher lows since mid-month. A deeper pullback could reach the 61.8% Fib at .6958, which coincides with the channel’s rising support and could be the line in the sand for the bullish move.
If these levels hold as a floor, AUDUSD could resume its climb toward the channel top and the recent high near .7021, potentially pushing for new highs beyond that. A break below the 100% Fib at .6916 and the channel bottom, on the other hand, could open the door to a larger correction back toward the prior range.
The 100 SMA remains above the 200 SMA, confirming that the path of least resistance is still tilted to the upside, and price holding above both moving averages on this pullback could reinforce their role as dynamic support.
Stochastic has pulled back from the overbought zone but is already curling higher, hinting that bullish momentum could return before the oscillator even reaches oversold territory.
RSI, meanwhile, has room to climb before hitting overbought levels, suggesting price could keep following through if buyers step back in around these Fib levels and the trend line.
AUDUSD could take cues from overall sentiment, as the focus has been shifting back to escalating geopolitical tensions and overvalued AI concerns, keeping higher-yielding rallies in check.
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