AUD: Weaker Than The Weakest

Helen Rush
Helen Rush
Senior Analyst – Capital Markets •

The US Dollar is like Alice in Wonderland falling down the rabbit hole. Will someone or something help USD today? We are not so sure.

The US Dollar is like Alice in Wonderland falling down the rabbit hole. Will someone or something help USD today? We are not so sure.
Even if the US data brings a positive surprise, would it be enough to help USD? Let's not forget that one of the main maintaining factors for the buck - the probability of a rate hike in December – is almost fully priced in. Does the dollar possess any other trump card (and by “trump” we don’t mean just one from the pack of cards)?
Nevertheless, AUD distinguished itself today. In the morning, the currency lost almost 0.6%. AUD/USD broke the very important support level in the 0.7600 area. The Aussie was really disappointed with the wages data. The RBA repeated in all sharps and flats it was not ready to tighten the monetary policy anytime soon. Its cautious stance is quite understandable, in spite of the overheated job’s market. And, you know, the incoming data confirms the regulator is right.
The Aussie is near July’s lows. Here it found a solid support. The break out of the 0.76 round figure will be a bearish signal. Under this scenario, AUD/USD should recover to the previous range, otherwise, the pair may fall towards May’s lows at 0.7400.

 

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