AUD May Reverse

Helen Rush
Helen Rush
Senior Analyst – Capital Markets •

The moves of AUDUSD this morning are indicative. The Reserve Bank of Australia monetary meeting confirmed the regulator is not happy with the recent sharp rise of AUD. Moreover, the central bank claimed rising aussie would lead to slower economic growth.

The moves of AUDUSD this morning are indicative. The Reserve Bank of Australia monetary meeting confirmed the regulator is not happy with the recent sharp rise of AUD. Moreover, the central bank claimed rising aussie would lead to slower economic growth.

However, the pair tried to move higher on the comments touching 0.7958 this morning. The market expected from the RBA more clear hints on interventions in case of stronger AUD. Mild comments made investors focus on positive economic forecasts, and supported the AUD move higher.

However, we believe it’s an initial “rumors-facts” reaction, and there fewer fundamental reasons for further AUD appreciation. Every new RBA meeting may bring more aggressive comments concerning the rise of national currency, and this will be pressuring Australian dollar in the long run.

In such environment we do not rule out AUDUSD reversal. The pair bumped into strong 0.7980 resistance, and the following retracement may send the pair to 0.79 in the nearest future.

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