Indonesia’s interest rate decision and South Korea's second-quarter GDP are the highlights of the week. Key data includes Singaporean inflation and Taiwanese export orders. China will mull changes to loan prime rates

Indonesia: BI to raise rates 25bps aimed FX stability
We expect Bank Indonesia to hike rates by 25bps to 6.0% on Wednesday, reflecting its continued focus on FX stability. Higher policy rates and attractive Sekuritas Rupiah Bank Indonesia (SRBI) yields are aimed at attracting foreign inflows, especially as the rupiah remains vulnerable. While inflation remains contained, the recent rise in oil prices revived concerns over Indonesia's external balances. It underscores the need for clear and credible policy action to support the currency.
South Korea: Net exports drive second-quarter GDP
South Korea releases second-quarter GDP data on Thursday. We expect GDP to moderate to 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, but year-on-year growth should accelerate to 4.2%. Net exports are likely to contribute positively to overall activity. The sharp improvement in the terms of trade will eventually play a positive role in the domestic economy. Thanks to fiscal support, private consumption is expected to expand modestly.
Singapore: Inflation expected to firm in June
We expect Singapore’s headline and core CPI inflation to firm in June. Higher global energy and food prices are likely to pass through to domestic costs. Rising demand for AI-related infrastructure and digital services, meanwhile, should place additional upward pressure on prices.
Taiwan: Strong export orders, IP amid tech boom
Taiwan releases export orders data on Tuesday. We look for orders to remain strong but to moderate a bit to 43.9% YoY in June. Two categories, Electronic Products and Information and Communication Products, account for the bulk of export orders. We expect industrial production data to show an acceleration to 15.2% YoY. Both data points hinge on the health of Taiwan’s tech exports.
China: No change in LPR expected
It’s a quiet week ahead for China in terms of macro news, after the most recent data showed China’s growth notably decelerating in the second quarter. On Monday, we expect China to announce no change in its loan prime rates.
Key events in Asia next week





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