India's rate decision is the highlight of the week, though the Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep rates unchanged. Key data releases include Philippine GDP and inflation, Indonesia's second-quarter GDP, China's trade figures, and Taiwan's inflation and trade.
India: RBI expected to keep rates unchanged
We expect the Reserve Bank of India to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% on Wednesday. While headline inflation surprised to the upside in June, largely due to higher fuel prices, underlying price pressures remain contained. Core inflation continues to run below the RBI's target, providing policymakers with sufficient room to keep policy rates unchanged while monitoring evolving risks to the inflation outlook. Particularly from elevated oil prices and the potential impact of a severe El Niño event on food prices.
Philippines: GDP and inflation in focus
Philippines GDP growth is expected to remain subdued in the second quarter at a 3.5% year-on-year pace, as elevated oil prices and continued political uncertainty keep investment activity muted. On the positive side, government spending should begin to recover after contracting in the second half of 2025, providing some support to domestic demand. Export growth is also expected to strengthen relative to the first quarter, with the Philippines benefiting from deeper integration into the AI supply chain. However, higher oil and non-oil import prices are likely to weigh on the trade balance, resulting in a smaller net contribution from external demand to overall GDP growth.
We expect CPI inflation in July to remain unchanged at 6.4% YoY. Food inflation should ease somewhat, with lower rice prices providing relief after the sharp increase recorded in June. However, fuel inflation is likely to continue edging higher, driven by increases in retail fuel prices. Services inflation is expected to remain sticky, reflecting persistent underlying price pressures in the sector.
Indonesia: Slower 2Q GDP growth expected
We expect Indonesian GDP growth to slow sharply to 5.0% YoY in 2Q from 5.6% previously, reflecting a challenging environment for private investment amid weak business confidence. Growth is also likely to be weighed down by a deterioration in the trade balance, as exports soften while oil imports remain relatively firm, driven by higher oil prices.
China: Trade data to highlight export strength
China releases its trade data on Friday. We look for exports and imports to remain strong, with 28.1% YoY growth for exports and 33.6% YoY growth for imports, for a trade surplus of $112.6bn. Trade is expected to continue to be dominated by tech-related categories. Markets might continue to watch for signs of China’s oil imports recovering or further stagnating.
Taiwan: Inflation and trade data in focus
Taiwan releases its inflation data on Wednesday. We look for inflation to moderate slightly to 2.4% YoY, which remains above target. Upside surprises might add to pressure for a rate hike in September, while an undershoot might reduce this pressure. Taipei will also release trade data on Thursday. We are looking for both exports and imports to edge up in July, to 43.6% YoY and 56.4% YoY, respectively, for a trade surplus of $15.2bn. Trade growth is expected to remain strong in the third quarter.
Key events in Asia next week
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