Asia Week Ahead: China And India Release Highly Anticipated Inflation Data

By Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song of ING Think

Economic and Financial Analysis • May 8, 2026 at 11:00 AM EDT

The highlights of the week will be inflation reports from China and India as global markets assess fallout from the Middle East.

depositphotos_25969635-stock-illustration-world-map-carving-wood-plank.jpg — Source: DepositPhotos

The highlights of the week will be inflation reports from China and India as global markets assess fallout from the Middle East. China will also release key trade data.

India: Modest rise in inflation expected

India’s inflation is expected to accelerate, but the increase should be modest. Retail gasoline prices are still capped, and core inflation remains contained. Instead, the main driver will be the second‑round effects of higher oil prices on food inflation.

China: Growth in trade expected, while inflation to remain modest

China’s trade data is scheduled for release on Saturday. We expect export growth of around 6.5% and imports to increase by 20.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of $71.6bn. We expect a slight boost in year-on-year trade with the US. Last April marked the escalation of the Liberation Day tariffs and the US-China trade war. Markets will watch whether the data better reflects the impact of higher energy prices. On Monday, China releases its inflation data. We expect the CPI to stay unchanged at 1.0% YoY and PPI to accelerate further to 1.9% YoY.

Key events in Asia next week

Disclaimer:

This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. ING forms part of ING Group (being for this purpose ING Group NV and its subsidiary and affiliated companies). The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice. The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions. Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. All rights are reserved. ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam). In the United Kingdom this information is approved and/or communicated by ING Bank N.V., London Branch. ING Bank N.V., London Branch is deemed authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. The nature and extent of consumer protections may differ from those for firms based in the UK. Details of the Temporary Permissions Regime, which allows EEA-based firms to operate in the UK for a limited period while seeking full authorisation, are available on the Financial Conduct Authority’s website.. ING Bank N.V., London branch is registered in England (Registration number BR000341) at 8-10 Moorgate, London EC2 6DA. For US Investors: Any person wishing to discuss this report or effect transactions in any security discussed herein should contact ING Financial Markets LLC, which is a member of the NYSE, FINRA and SIPC and part of ING, and which has accepted responsibility for the distribution of this report in the United States under applicable requirements.

Comments

Back to all articles