As Cable Ad Spending Declines, Full-Year Revenue Revisions Are Necessary For These Six Companies

On Friday July 18, it was noted that both General Motors (GM) and Procter & Gamble (PG) had demonstrated a reduction in their level of ad commitments compared to the year ago period, and in my opinion this spells nothing but trouble for the full-year revenues of names like The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Comcast Corporation (CMCSA), Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA), Time Warner (TWX), AMC Networks (AMCX) and Viacom Inc. (VIA). Prior to this announcement, the overall cable upfront market had been expected to demonstrate a year-over-year gains of 4% versus the now anticipated declines of as much as 5% due in large part to the reduction in ad commitments by names like General Motors and Procter & Gamble.

Based on the overall decline in ad commitments, I strongly believe that full-year revenue estimates for companies such as Disney, Comcast, Twenty-First Century Fox, Time Warner, AMC Networks, and Viacom all need to be revised downward by at least 1% if not more. My latest full-year 2014 revenue estimates are calling for Disney to post revenues of $48 billion (versus previous expectations of $48.47 billion), for Comcast to post revenues of $68.75 billion (versus previous expectations of $69.07 billion), for Twenty-First Century Fox to post revenues of $30.55 billion (versus previous expectation of $31.39 billion), for Time Warner to post revenues of $26.75 billion (versus previous expectation of $27.73 billion), for AMC Networks to post revenues of $2.05 billion (versus previous expectations of $2.16 billion), and for Viacom Inc. to post revenues of $13.14 billion (versus previous expectations of $13.84 billion).

For those of you who may be considering a position in any one of the above mentioned cable network and diversified entertainment companies, I'd actually hold off on establishing a position until at least Q1 2015 since I've slashed my revenue estimates for FY 2014 across the board. I also believe that General Motors and Proctor & Gamble won't be the only two names that plan on cutting their respected ad commitments before the end of the year.