Arm Holdings Stock: What Wall Street Expects From Earnings

Arm Holdings reports fiscal Q1 2027 earnings on July 29, and the market is watching closely. Options traders are pricing in a swing of roughly 15% in either direction — a reflection of just how much is riding on this report.

ARM stock is up 138% year-to-date, trading at 119x forward 2027 earnings. That kind of valuation doesn’t leave much room for disappointment.

Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares, ARM

Wall Street expects earnings of $0.40 per share, up 14.3% from $0.35 in the same quarter last year. Revenue is forecast at $1.26 billion, representing 20% year-over-year growth.

ARM has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last 10 quarters. That streak adds pressure — a miss now would sting more than usual.

The company’s Q4 fiscal 2026 results set a solid baseline. Total revenue rose 20% year-over-year to $1.49 billion. Licensing revenue jumped 29% to $819 million, while royalty revenue climbed 11% to $671 million.

The AGI CPU: ARM’s Biggest New Bet

ARM’s business has traditionally centered on licensing its chip architecture and collecting royalties. Now it’s going further — the company launched its own Arm AGI CPU aimed directly at AI data centers, with Meta (META) as lead partner and co-developer.

The company has already secured more than $2 billion in customer demand for the AGI CPU across FY2027 and FY2028, more than double initial expectations. But supply-chain constraints have kept the revenue outlook at $1 billion for now.

Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), and Google are already using Arm-based CPUs alongside AI accelerators. Companies including Cerebras, OpenAI, and Oracle (ORCL) have also adopted the new AGI CPU platform.

ARM believes CPUs are becoming as relevant as GPUs in AI infrastructure. Management expects the data center CPU market to exceed $100 billion by 2030.

Jefferies analyst Janardan Menon raised his price target to $320 from $290 last week, maintaining a Buy. He now projects AGI CPU revenue of $18 billion in FY2031, above ARM’s own $15 billion guide. He also flagged potential upside from a SoftBank GPU launch next year built on ARM’s design services.

What Investors Are Watching

Beyond the headline numbers, three things will shape how the market reacts. First, investors want evidence that AI and custom silicon exposure is translating into faster top-line growth — not just good headlines.

Second, any update on royalty rates and new architecture adoption could move the stock quickly. ARM’s push into higher-value chip designs is key to the bull case.

Third, smartphone and IoT demand — still a large part of ARM’s licensing base — needs to show stability.

Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland also raised his price target to $320 from $300, keeping a Buy rating.

For the full fiscal year, analysts expect earnings to grow 22.5%, followed by a further 42% rise in FY2028.

The average price target across 31 analysts covering ARM sits at $331, implying roughly 24% upside from current levels. The most bullish target on the Street stands at $500.