Are We Safer Than We Were 6 Months Ago?

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, no deal apparent, and we are moving the George Washington CSG away from the Pacific.

Source: USNI, accessed 8/17/2026.

So much for the pivot to the Pacific.

The betting odds for reopening the Strait of Hormuz by year’s end is only 33%; it’s 8% for October’s beginning.

Source: Kalshi, accessed 8/17/2026, noon CT.

At the same time, Brent October futures remain elevated near $90, while gasoline futures near all-time levels in June.

Source: NYMEX via Barchart, accessed 8/17/2026 noon CT.