April 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims 4,427,000 This Week

Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 3000 K to 4545 K (consensus 4,000 K), and the Department of Labor reported 4,427,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4-week moving average moved from 5,506,500 (reported last week as 5,508,500) to 5,786,500

Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims

According to the BLS:

The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and its impact is also reflected in the increasing levels of insured unemployment.

The pandemic has so far caused a 26,453,000 job loss.

It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 2645 % higher than one year ago (versus the 2548 % higher last week) - and is higher than any historical value for this data set.

 

Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion - see chart below).

 

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending April 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 4,427,000, a decrease of 810,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 8,000 from 5,245,000 to 5,237,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,786,500, an increase of 280,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 2,000 from 5,508,500 to 5,506,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 11.0 percent for the week ending April 11, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from the previous week's unrevised rate. This marks the highest level of the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 11 was 15,976,000, an increase of 4,064,000 from the previous week's revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous week's level was revised down by 64,000 from 11,976,000 to 11,912,000. The 4-week moving average was 9,598,250, an increase of 3,548,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 16,000 from 6,066,250 to 6,050,250.