April 2017 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Improves

The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg / Econoday) were 245 K to 254 K (consensus 250,000), and the Department of Labor reported 234,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 254,500 (reported last week as 254,250) to 250,000. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.

Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims

The trend of the 4 week moving average improved this week. This marks 107 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970. The general trend of the 4 week rolling average is a slowing rate of improvement year-over-year which historically suggests a slowing economy.

It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 7.5 % lower (better than the revised 5.1 % for last week) than they were in this same week in 2016.

Claim levels are at 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion - see chart below).

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending April 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, a decrease of 25,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 258,000 to 259,000. The 4-week moving average was 250,000, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 254,250 to 254,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.5 percent for the week ending March 25, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 25 was 2,028,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 2,052,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,023,000, a decrease of 7,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 2,030,750. This is the lowest level for this average since June 17, 2000 when it was 2,016,750.