The economic mover and shaker this week is the Friday employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, probably the most publicized in the near term being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository).
Today we have a January estimate of 213K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP.
The 213K estimate came in below the Investing.comforecast of 225K for the ADP number. Moreover, ADP made a 12K upward revision to its December estimate, from 241K to 253K.
The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is 234K nonfarm new jobs (the actual PAYEMS number).
Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report:
| Goods-producing employment rose by 31,000 jobs in January, down from 47,000 jobs gained in December. The construction industry added 18,000 jobs, down from last month's gain of 26,000. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 14,000 jobs in January, below December's 23,000. Service-providing employment rose by 183,000 jobs in January, down from 207,000 in December. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/business services contributed 42,000 jobs in January, a large drop-off from December's 72,000. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 54,000, a sharp increase from December's 40,000. The 11,000 new jobs added in financial activities is down from last month's 14,000, but still well above the average of the past twelve months. "January marks another month of solid job gains and is in line with the NER's twelve-month average of over 200,000 jobs added per month," said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said, "Employment posted another solid gain in January, although the pace of growth is slower than in recent months. Businesses in the energy and supplying industries are already scaling back payrolls in reaction to the collapse in oil prices, while industries benefiting from the lower prices have been slower to increase their hiring. All indications are that the job market will continue to improve in 2015." |
Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.
The key difference between the two series is that the BLS series is for Nonfarm Payrolls while ADP tracks private employment.
For a sense of the critical importance of employment data for the economy, see my Big Four Economic Indicators, which I will be updating shortly after the employment report is published.
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