Al-Baghdadi Shows Up In Mosul

Saudi Arabia Sends Troops to Iraq's Border

Late last week it was reported that Saudi Arabia's government had sent 30,000 troops to the Saudi border with Iraq, on the grounds that Iraq's army had simply left its posts. A spokesman for Iraq's army denied it:

“Saudi-owned al-Arabiya television said Saudi Arabia had deployed 30,000 soldiers to its border with Iraq on Thursday after Iraqi forces abandoned the area, but Baghdad denied pulling forces back and said it remained in full control of its frontier. Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, shares an 800-km (500-mile) desert border with Iraq, where Islamic State insurgents and other Sunni Muslim militant groups seized towns and cities in a lightning advance last month.

The U.S.-allied kingdom overcame its own al Qaeda insurgency almost a decade ago and is wary of any new threat from radical Sunni Islamists. The Dubai-based al-Arabiya said on its website that Saudi troops had fanned out into the border region after Iraqi government forces withdrew from their positions, leaving the Saudi and Syrian frontiers exposed.

It aired a video which, it said, showed some 2,500 Iraqi soldiers in the desert region east of the Iraqi city of Kerbala after pulling back from the border, which is reinforced on the Saudi side by a system of fences. An officer in the video said that the soldiers had been ordered to quit their posts without justification. The authenticity of the recording could not immediately be verified.

However, the Iraqi prime minister's military spokesman, Lieutenant General Qassim Atta, told reporters in Baghdad: "This is false news aimed at affecting the morale of our people and the morale of our heroic fighters." He said the frontier, which runs through largely empty desert, was "fully in the grip" of Iraqi border troops.

Saudi Arabia's Interior Ministry security spokesman, Major General Mansour Turki, said: "We have not experienced any insecurity close to our border, and our border is secured and protected long before the latest events in Iraq."

The state news agency SPA said King Abdullah had ordered all necessary measures to protect the kingdom against potential "terrorist threats". Diplomatic sources in the Gulf say Saudi Arabia's border with Iraq is relatively well defended, but that its frontier with Jordan might provide an easier route for any militants trying to enter Saudi Arabia from Iraq.

It could be that the Saudi government is waking up to the possibility that ISIS (now IS) could pose a threat to its rule after all. Since above the report appeared, several related news items have hit the wires. One was that two fundamentalist militants have blown themselves up in Southern Saudi Arabia. Apparently they were involved in an attack on a Saudi border post with Yemen, in which altogether eight people were killed. When they were surrounded, they engaged the police in a firefight and then blew themselves up before they could be captured. Saudi troops arereportedly  on 'red alert'.

Saudi Arabian soldiers

(Photo via theworldpress.com)

Saudi Arabia also promptly sacked its fourth deputy defense minister in 15 months, reportedly on concerns that Islamist militants have been gaining way too much ground just about everywhere.  The Saudi government was meanwhile also forced to defend itself against accusations that it is helping IS:

“Saudi Arabia has denied giving any support to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis), the jihadi group that has captured swaths of territory across northern and central Iraq, as well as controlling large parts of northern Syria. Stung by accusations from the Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, the normally reticent Saudi government issued a statement rejecting what it called "false allegations" and a "malicious falsehood".

Maliki claimed in a statement on Tuesday that the Saudis were facilitating genocide. Riyadh hit back by blaming Maliki's "exclusionary policies" for fomenting the crisis – a reference to the Shia politician's widely criticized sectarianism vis-a-vis Iraq's Sunni minority. The Saudi monarchy has been a vocal supporter of the overthrow of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, and sent money and weapons to rebel groups fighting against him from early on in the Syrian uprising. It has also called repeatedly for western arms – including anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons – to be given to Syrian rebels "to level the playing-field" in the war.

Wealthy individuals and religious foundations in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and elsewhere in the Gulf have channeled millions of dollars to the anti-Assad opposition, though it is not clear with what degree of official connivance.

But since last autumn the Saudi government has diverted its support to a broad Islamic Front which has been fighting against jihadi formations such as Isis and the Syrian group Jabhat al-Nusra. There is other evidence of a rethink in the replacement of the Saudi intelligence chief, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, with Prince Mohamed bin Nayef, the interior minister and architect of a successful campaign against al-Qaida. The Saudis are also co-ordinating more closely with the US than previously.

"There is Saudi money flowing into Isis but it is not from the Saudi state," said Lina Khatib of the Carnegie Foundation. The fear in Saudi Arabia is of an Afghan-style "blowback" of returning jihadis. It is similar to the concern of the UK and other western governments which are increasingly pre-occupied by a counter-terrorist agenda as they struggle to contain the effect of wars in Syria and Iraq that have merged into one and allowed Isis to claim that it is on the way to creating an Islamic emirate.

They might as well “rethink” their position, as IS in turn apparently let it be known that Saudi Arabia is definitely on its list of future targets. However, the authenticity of this particular news item is open to doubt, as it asserts that IS is threatening to destroy the Kaaba. That seems highly unlikely, given that the Kaaba is the holiest site in Islam. It could well be that this news item is counter-propaganda. The idea that IS ultimately has Saudi Arabia in its sights should however not be dismissed out of hand. It is precisely because the country is site to several of Islam's holiest sites that IS should be expected to show an interest in it. In spite of the theocratic nature of the Saudi regime, IS no doubt regards the princes as 'apostates'.

Ersatz OBL Puts in an Appearance

The next news item is undoubtedly genuine: the mysterious IS Sheikh Abu-Bakr al-Baghdadi has finally shown his face in a mosque in Mosul, delivering a sermon. Well, scratch that. He actually wishes no longer to be known as Sheikh al-Baghdadi, but is henceforth calling himself “Caliph Ibrahim” as befits his new station of ruler of the Caliphate.

Al-Baghdadi, a.k.a. Caliph Ibrahim, in Mosul – contrary to his old mug-shot, he certainly looks like an Ersatz-Osama by now. He is also good at delivering incredibly long-winded, flowery speeches, another characteristic he has in common with the late OBL.

(Photo credit: Furqan Media)

“The first appearance of self-proclaimed "caliph" Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a video shot in an Iraqi mosque illustrates the extent of his group's control and confidence, experts say. Baghdadi, whose Islamic State (IS) group holds territory in both Iraq and Syria, called for Muslims to "obey" him during the prayer sermon at the Al-Nur mosque in Mosul on Friday, according to the video distributed online the following day. The appearance was surprising for a militant who cultivated an image of a reclusive battlefield commander.

It is the latest in a series of moves that have brought IS back to prominence after it had been on the ropes – culminating in the offensive it led last month that captured chunks of Iraqi territory. "Put simply, one of the most wanted men on earth was able to travel into central Mosul and give a 30-minute sermon in the most venerated mosque in the largest city under control of the most notorious jihadist group of our time," said Charles Lister, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center. "The fact that Baghdadi has appeared publicly at all in such a central location underlines the extent of confidence felt within his organisation."

The Islamic State spearheaded a Sunni Arab militant offensive that captured Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq, on 10 June. The video posted Saturday showed a portly man clad in a long black robe and turban with a thick graying beard – purportedly Baghdadi - addressing worshippers at weekly prayers in central Mosul.

Superimposed text identified the man as "Caliph Ibrahim", the name Baghdadi took when the group on 29 June declared a "caliphate", a pan-Islamic state last seen in Ottoman times, in which the leader is both political and religious.

[…]

"This video will likely feature in future… recruitment videos," said Ahmed Ali of the Institute of the Study of War.

"Baghdadi has long sought to position himself as the leader of global jihad in competition with Zawahiri and other figures in the Al-Qaeda central structure. The control of Mosul and other areas in Iraq is the perfect moment for him to establish himself as the main jihadi leader. Therefore, a public appearance is important for a 'caliph'."

A video of the event can be seen here:

The Caliph's “obey me” sermon. An English translation has been made available as well.

The decisive passage in which the 'caliph' announces his claim to henceforth lead international djihadism is this one:

"I am the wali (leader) who presides over you, though I am not the best of you, so if you see that I am right, assist me," he said, wearing a black turban and robe. "If you see that I am wrong, advise me and put me on the right track, and obey me as long as I obey God in you."

The sermon has already produced an outcry from various competing would-be caliphs:

“The declaration has provoked an outcry from many Islamic leaders and scholars – even those who want a caliphate.

Qatar-based Egyptian scholar Yusuf al-Qaradawi said on Saturday that Muslims look forward to the coming "as soon as possible" of a caliphate. But the IS declaration, he said, is “void under sharia" and has "dangerous consequences for Sunnis in Iraq and the revolt in Syria".

"We consider this so-called caliphate worthless," the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood tweeted on Saturday. "We do not deem it legitimate." 

"We want a caliphate; it is at the core of our ideology," said Daii Islam al-Shahhal, founder of Lebanon's Salafist movement. "But such a state should be founded on several criteria, which have not yet been met." 

We doubt the self-proclaimed caliph will be impressed. After all, he's the one who has a big army, tons of money and controls a sizable slice of territory. Evidently he is intent not only on establishing himself as OBL's heir, but is going a decisive step further by attempting to erect a new state with expansionist ambitions. We continue to believe that assorted Middle Eastern monarchies have every reason to fear him and his organization. Consider in this context an IS propaganda video discussing the group's goal of redrawing the map of the region by destroying the Sykes-Picot borders, which can be seen here.

Similar to other IS propaganda movies, it is a slick production evidently aimed at potential overseas recruits. It does however contain some interesting background information. The bulldozers leveling the berm between Syria and Iraq can be seen in action, and deserted border posts as well as a deserted regional police HQ which IS apparently conquered are shown. Clearly the group is the only authority at this stretch of the border.

Also shown are prisoners IS made at the  border post and a number of  vehicles it captured (they are even thanking the US for sending all those humvees). For those taking the time to watch it, here are a few explanations: the Yazidi prisoners which the IS militant singles out are members of a sect that has about 500,000 members in Iraq's Niniveh province. One must fear the worst for them, as they are considered the worst kind of unbelievers. Their faith is an odd mixture of Zoroastrianism, Gnosticism, Christianity, Judaism and Islam. The militant accuses them of being “devil worshipers”, a claim that stems from the fact that they are in a certain sense indeed devil worshipers.

One of their most holy figures is the peacock angel Melek Taus – whose story sounds exactly like hat of the Jinn Iblis in Islam – the angel who has been cast out of heaven by Allah due to insubordination (which in turn echoes the story of Lucifer in the Christian faith).

However, the Yazidi have a different interpretation of the story. Apparently God ordered Melek Taus to kneel before his creation Adam. Melek Taus felt that this contradicted an earlier order not to bow to other beings. In the Yazidi interpretation, the order to bow before Adam was a test which Melek Taus passed with flying colors by disobeying. Melek Taus is incidentally also known by the name of Shaitan – whom both Muslims and Christians identify as Satan. It can be concluded that it is indeed the same figure. The Yazidis hold Melek Taus to be the first archangel created by God, and revere him for his 'sublime majesty' and wisdom. The Yazidis also believe that they are not descended from Eve, but from Adam's son from a second marriage, a certain Shehid bin Jer. Contrary to the other Middle Eastern monotheistic religions, Yazidism is not a scriptural religion – the Yazidis have no 'holy book'. Instead the religion's traditions, rules and stories have been passed on orally.

Symbol of Melek Taus, the peacock angel.

(Image via yeziden-ohz.de, author unknown)

For readers not familiar with these expressions, are a few of the Arabic phrases that are often repeated in these videos:

الحمد لله     Al-ḥamdu lillāh = praise be to God

 إن شاء الله‎  Insha'Allah    =  God willing

الله أكبر       Allāhu Akbar =  God is great

There exist countless similar phrases, but these three are heard most often. 

In spite of the success IS had with its conquest of Northern Syria and Northern Iraq, it is difficult to imagine that it will actually be able to successfully push into neighboring countries, not least because predominantly Shi'ite Southern Iraq is between the IS controlled territory and these other states. Moreover, they all have a well-trained military that's armed to the teeth – this is especially true of Saudi Arabia. However, many regimes that once appeared unshakable have fallen in the course of history (remember the Shah?), so one shouldn't rule anything out. Here is a political map of the Middle East and neighboring countries:

The Middle East and neighboring countries. Iraq has borders with Turkey, Syria, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia – via Bruce Jones Design Inc. – click to enlarge.

As the map shows, from Iraq actually border quite a few Middle Eastern countries. One must be keep in mind that these borders are extremely long and in the middle of a desert. On the one hand it is easy to watch them, on the other hand it is difficult to effectively control them – not least as there are tribes living near the  borders that habitually cross them regularly with goat herds and caravans. The Saudis have built a fence at the Yemeni border to keep militants out, with the result that there has been an outcry from tribesmen in the region because they can no longer cross the border as easily as previously. 

Conclusion:

It appears IS is fortifying its presence in Northern Iraq. In the long run, the group may well cause a lot more upheaval in the region, which in turn could obviously affect oil supplies, or at least market perceptions about oil supplies. For Saudi Arabia, the situation could well become a case of “the spirits I have summoned, my commands ignore”.

A classical mistake in its early stages, as shown in a famous Disney cartoon.