Agricultural Commodities - Where’s The Deflation In This?

(Click on image to enlarge)

On Sunday, I wrote the playbook for the Economic Modern Family

Watch Granny Retail-a failure of those key levels, spells more trouble for IWM IYT KRE. (She did not fail)
Watch Semis SMH - if it pulls above $260 follow growth stocks. If it holds $240 buy dips, and if it fails $240 prepare for a bigger sell off. (Semis held 260)
Watch IBB - the opportunities in this sector appear to be ripe. (IBB was not the sexy play, but will be if it clears key resistance at 131)

I have also written a lot about hard assets-uranium (flying), silver (holding), oil (consolidating) and natural gas (basing).

I also noted that soybeans were starting break out last week.

Now I turn my attention to DBA, the ETF of agricultural and soft commodities.

With CPI PPI showing inflation going down, I wish I could say the same for this chart!

I show 2 charts of DBA - the Daily and the Weekly timeframes.

On the Daily, the phase is bullish as the 50-DMA sits above the 200-DMA and the price is above both MAs. (PHASE)

DBA cleared the January 6-month calendar range. (TODAY)

Time to strike?

While it’s not outperforming SPY, nor has it since late April, we have something to watch for.

And momentum is in a bearish divergence with the moving averages not stacked. Plus, the red dots have t0 to clear the 50-DMA (blue).

On the weekly charts, the price has been consolidating since the April flush.

The phase is bullish and has been since January 2024. That is why I find the bearish calls so out of touch.

While momentum has waned along with leadership-given the current volatility in the markets, the seasonal potential weather disruption and the global conflicts, we are watching.

What we want to see