MAY CORN
With the over-nite announcement of 2-wk cease-fire in the Iran War, grains in general have decoupled from their lock-step correlation with energy prices & have shredded the war premium they had built up since the war’s inception! However one of the ripple effects of the cease-fire is a sharply lower US Dollar – which is beneficial to corn exports – already quite robust! So it’s back to weather & Spring Planting with corn 3% in! Monday Inspections surpassed 2.0 MMT! The May summit is scheduled for 5-15-26! Trump is behind in the polls more so now after he unilaterally entered the US in the widely unpopular Iran War & he needs the Farm Vote for the 2026 midterms in Nov – & will do everything in his power to help the farmer before the election! Drought has been an issue for winter wheat & that may morph into the corn & bean planting & development! Finally, 4 million less acres in 2026!
MAY BEANS
Impressively, May Beans are higher today despite the general assumption that any indication the War was over would result in a mass exodus of longs from their bulky long OI position! However the US $$ is also sharply lower & the US/China Beijing Summit is coming soon! Even though acres are predicted higher – that # may be ratcheted down due to the surging fuel/fertilizer costs! Plus, the mkt has already corrected 80 cents down off its 2026 highs! Plus dryness in the Winter Wht Belt might extend into the corn/bean planting areas!
MAY WHT
May Wht took the brunt of the selling after the cease-fire news, falling to double-digit losses today! In addition to the geopolitical news, rains in the W Plains & increases in Russian Wht exports have pressured the contract! Still, overall drought in the WW areas might trim production – come harvest!
JUNE CAT
The bullish juggernaut that is June Cat continues its upward march to near record levels off very tight supplies & solid demand – even as the cheaper alternative June hogs languishes near its 2026 lows – The consumer reasserting his preference for burgers & steaks over pork chops & brauts! The mkt had a brief correction off the Iran War tightening his budget with $4.00 gas – but quickly resumed its up on the back of robust supply/demand fundamentals – gaining over $20 since early March!
JUNE HOGS
Amazingly, June Hogs have hugged its 2026 lows despite its neighbor June Cat surging to near-term record highs! The divergence is a real head-scratcher as the two contracts normally move in lock-step – especially with pork being the cheaper alternative in the supermarket! But hogs have been plagued by over-supply & lackluster demand! It seems eventually the cat-hog spread will narrow as cattle’s record high price finally turns off demand! But for now turn the June Cat chart upside down & you have the June Hog chart!
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