The first time Iran found itself in a major regional war with Donald Trump about to enter the White House was April 13, 2024, when as part of escalating tensions with Israel, "Iran began an attack on Israel by launching dozens of suicide drones" on April 13, 2024. That said, it is a stretch to call that particular weapons exchange a war, as both sides just wanted some theatrical appreciation rather than rearranging the borders of the Middle East. What is more notable is that the war started in the deep dark of a Saturday morning (April 13, 2024) when global markets were closed, and the only traded asset was crypto in general, and bitcoin in particular. The kneejerk reaction was sharply lower.
The second time Iran found itself in a major regional war with Donald Trump (already in) the White House, was a little over a year later, on June 21-22, when in a much more serious and aggressive attack, "Operation Midnight Hammer" saw airstrikes, cruise missile attacks and B-2 bombers drop Massive Ordnance Penetrators on three key Iranian nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, all of which were quickly destroyed. As a result, Iran's nuclear enrichment process was effectively (and literally) buried under a mountain, and then the major regional conflict was again promptly forgotten. What is most notable is that the war, too, started in the deep dark of a Saturday morning (June 21, 2025) when global markets were closed, and the only traded asset was crypto in general, and bitcoin in particular. The kneejerk reaction this time, too, was sharply lower.
Fast forward to today, when in the most serious war between Iran and a coalition of US and Israel forces in decades, Iran was promptly "decapitated" as all of its top generals and IRGC personnel were killed, while also losing its spiritual head, the Ayatollah. This conflict started shortly after the sun rose, as the attacking generals thought a night attack, which everyone - and especially Iran - would expect as it is "meant" to be a surprise, would have little impact. They were right, and Ayatollah Khomeini was promptly vaporized. What was similar to previous conflicts is that this one too started early on Saturday, when global markets were closed. Well, not all: Bitcoin was trading. And, like the previous two most recent regional wars, Bitcoin's kneejerk reaction this time too, was sharply lower... but not for long, and shortly after it emerged that Ayatollah Khameini was dead and most of the army leaders had been killed, bitcoin - that weekend trading risk barometer - staged a remarkable rebound and was actually trading well above where it was before the currency sold off shortly after midnight on Saturday East Coast time.
Which begs the question: is the conflict now effectively over, and is Wall Street getting the "all-green signals"? This is also the question asked by Academy Securities strategist Peter Tchir, who, in a late Saturday note, wrote that he remains comfortable buying the market. He explains that a lot was priced in, with Brent crude moving from $60 in late December to $72 on Friday. Tchir notes that "bad" news on the oil front, such as shipping insurance cancellations and limited transit in the Strait of Hormuz, should be largely priced in. Conversely, "good" news includes the fact that nothing has happened to prevent transit if there is an off-ramp, and China supposedly has large stockpiles of crude.
Furthermore, Tchir observes that intelligence and military actions have delivered at high levels for the US and Israel, while Iran's weapon systems have not performed as well as expected. He suggests Iran's calculus should be adjusted to seek an "off-ramp." Bitcoin, viewed as a risk-on asset, has recovered from early losses to trade slightly higher. Putting it all together, Tchir remains optimistic for a "risk on" start to the week, hoping that events lead to a peaceful resolution and minimize the loss of life in the region.
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