A Quickie With Sealed Air Corporation

My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I know very little about this company. I can tell you that I am not a shareholder and I can also tell you that I am a value investor focusing on picks and shovels type companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on the company’s most recent 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation and that valuations, while given as a specific amount, are always with in a valuation range. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
Sealed Air Corporation is engaged in the food safety and security, and the facility hygiene and product protection business, serving the end markets of food and beverage processing, food service, retail, health care and industrial, commercial and consumer applications. The company has widely recognized and inventive brands such as Bubble Wrap ® brand cushioning, Cryovac ® brand food packaging solutions and Diversey ® brand cleaning and hygiene solutions. Industry peers include Printpack, Sonoco Products, and Bemis Company.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $45.81, with an initial trailing stop set at $42.14. Based on a recent price of $42.78, upward price movement will find resistance at $43.95 and again at $44.87, with final resistance found at $46.44. Downward price movement will find support at $41.41 and again at $37.34, with final support found at $34.47.

Quality of Earnings
A company’s earnings can be impacted by sources unrelated to the company’s day to day operations. These unrelated sources will distort a company’s earnings and consequently its fair value. Investors should always explore the sources of a company’s earnings to better understand potential valuation impacts. Considering the company’s earnings, 0% came from tax benefits while 8% came from sources unrelated to day to day operations.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $28. Momentum targets are determined by integrating a company’s most recent annual EPS and year-over-year earnings growth, with the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $38. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 307.41 shares of stock with a cost basis of $32.53 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/2018), you would have closed at $34.84 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $189.91 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $10,900 a gain of 9%, excluding dividends.

Insider Transactions
The SEC classifies insiders as “management, officers or any beneficial owners with more than 10% class of a company’s security.” Insiders are required to abide by certain rules and fill out SEC forms every time they buy or sell company shares. In addition, to prevent insider trading, or benefiting illegally from material non-public information that their positions give them access to, the law prevents insiders from deposing of shares within six months of their purchase. This effectively bars insiders from profiting from quick trades based on their “insider” knowledge.

Over the past 12 months, the company has recorded 33 insider trades involving 183,735 shares of stock. Of those 33 insider trades, 24 were Buys involving 175,202 shares of stock, and 9 were Sells involving 8,533 shares of stock, creating an insider buy to sell ratio of roughly 20 to 1.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 was $29. The stock price during that time period averaged $42.34, earnings averaged $3.19 per share, and the average PE Ratio was 13. The current PE Ratio is 24.

Cost of Common Equity
The cost of common equity is the minimum annual rate of return an investor should expect to earn when investing in shares of a particular company. I calculate this by adding the thirty-year treasury yield to the beta ratio for the stock multiplied by my default equity risk premium. My cost of common equity for this stock is 5.67%.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. My fair value estimate for the stock is $34.

Sealed Air Corporation (NYSE: SEE) – FYE 12/2018 – SELL HALF – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $34 baseline value estimate, but below my most recent $55 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 07/01/19