A Political Divide Is Emerging In The United States

Renewed buying in the AI and semiconductor sectors triggered a notable divergence among major indices. By the end of the session, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.38%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.36%. The technology-heavy Nas Index (US100) closed 0.83% higher yesterday. The rebound in Nvidia (+2.3%), AMD (+3.6%), and giants such as Microsoft and Meta reflects investors’ attempts to buy the recent deep dip ahead of earnings releases, despite ongoing concerns about the return on massive capital expenditures. At the same time, targeted warnings from Apple (-1.9%) about component cost pressures on holiday-season margins and the decline in Palantir (-1.6%) due to slowing commercial contracts highlight the market’s growing selectivity regarding corporate performance quality.

The Democratic Party’s success in the midterm elections and the prospect of gaining control of the House of Representatives are increasing the risks of tighter legislative oversight of major technology companies, limiting the prospects for the swift approval of large-scale corporate stimulus measures. Political gridlock in Washington is effectively blocking fiscal expansion.

Bitcoin’s (BTC/USD) drop below $76,000 to a two-month low reflects the combined impact of regulatory concerns and a deep crisis of confidence in digital asset infrastructure. The prospect of a stronger Democratic presence in Congress jeopardizes the passage of the digital assets-friendly Clarity Act, raising the risk of stricter oversight from the SEC and CFTC. Combined with significant capital outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have exceeded $1 billion over recent sessions, institutional investors have preferred to lock in profits and shift into risk-hedging mode until the political landscape in Washington becomes clearer.
In Europe, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.45%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.34%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.79%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session 1.14% lower.

The yield on 10-year Swiss government bonds remaining near a seven-week low of 0.50% clearly reflects Switzerland’s unique status amid the global deflationary impulse coming from the oil market. With core inflation in the country remaining persistently low at around 0.5%, the regulator under the leadership of Martin Schlegel retains a substantial policy buffer, keeping the benchmark interest rate at 0% and facing no urgent need for rapid monetary tightening.

The acceleration of WTI crude oil’s decline below $95 per barrel, reaching a three-week low after losing 7.4% in the previous session, reflects a substantial collapse in the geopolitical risk premium. The market is receiving a powerful three-sided signal of de-escalation: a $4 billion reduction in US military financial assistance to Israel through the end of the year, assurances from Energy Secretary Chris Wright that there have been no supply disruptions following strikes near Qeshm Island, and unprecedented diplomatic flexibility from Tehran. For global markets, this deflationary shift is temporarily easing stagflation concerns, prompting investors to reassess the path of monetary tightening by G10 central banks. The stabilization of oil prices near the 95 floor ahead of the first US exit polls will help determine whether the current correction develops into a sustained trend or whether markets face another wave of volatility as Washington’s political balance becomes clearer.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was closed yesterday, China’s FTSE China 50 finished 0.26% lower, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.57%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 0.34% higher.

Hong Kong’s GDP growth accelerated to 5.2% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, compared with a prediction of 3.7%, underscoring its key role as Asia’s leading trade and financial gateway. A sharp 30.4% year-on-year rise in merchandise exports, coupled with a jump in fixed capital investment to 7.3%, was driven by the ongoing boom in artificial intelligence and semiconductors. Hong Kong’s latest data serves as an important indicator of the underlying strength of the broader Asia-Pacific region, confirming the resilience of supply chains despite aggressive efforts by the People’s Bank of China to stabilize the yuan.
The rise in New Zealand’s unemployment rate to 5.7%, the highest level since 2015, together with a decline in hours worked and moderate wage growth of 2.1%, highlights a pronounced cooling in the domestic labor market. This weakening macroeconomic profile creates a direct contrast with the monetary policy cycle of neighboring Australia, increasing pressure on the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and calling into question the need for further demand restraint by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

• S&P 500 (US500) 7,568.92 +27.52 (+0.36%)

• Dow Jones (US30) 51,786.72 -197.26 (-0.38%)

• DAX (DE40) 25,981.09 -116.47 (-0.45%)

• FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,638.43 -1.14 (-122.90%)

• USD Index 101.86 +0.11 (+0.11%)

News feed for: 2026.11.04

• Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2) – AUD (MED)

• China RatingDog Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)

• Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+2) – SEK (HIGH)

• German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2) – EUR (MED)

• Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2) – EUR (MED)

• UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2) – GBP (MED)

• Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2) – EUR (HIGH)

• US ADP Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2) – USD (MED)

• US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2) – USD (MED)

• Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2) – CAD (MED)

• Canada Services PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+2) – CAD (MED)

• US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2) – USD (MED)

• US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2) – WTI (HIGH)