A Note On Initial Jobless Claims

Hale Stewart
By New Deal democrat of The Bonddad Blog
Financial Adviser; Complex Tax Planning; Captive Insurance Companies •

Initial jobless claims for last week were reported at 206,000 this morning. That is one of the lowest weekly readings during this expansion.

Initial jobless claims for last week were reported at 206,000 this morning. That is one of the lowest weekly readings during this expansion.

More significantly, the 4 week moving average is back below 10% off its low, within the range of typical noise:

 

And it is down -4.6% YoY, which as the below graph going back 50 years shows, is actually a quite positive reading:

 

I continue to expect a slowdown next year, so I am not expecting any substantial improvement in this number, but it is certainly not negative now.

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