A Medical Care Employment Crisis in Five Pictures

Looking at the above chart it's likely difficult to clearly spot a problem. But there's big one lurking. 

Curiously, one of the problems is easier to spot on a long-term chart. 

Health care and Social Assistance Employment Since 2000

Nursing and Residential Care stands out like a sore thumb. It turns out that at least one segment of health care is not recession proof (or at least covid proof). 

Even still, the overall strength of the sector masks the magnitude of the problem. Let's stop for a moment and look at the components .

Health Care and Social Assistance Components  

1. Ambulatory Health Care Services: NAICS 621
2. Hospitals: NAICS 622
3. Nursing and Residential Care Facilities: NAICS 623
4. Social Assistance: NAICS 624

The first three categories compromise Health Care. Together with Social Assistance they make up the broader Health Care and Social Assistance category as per the BLS Health Care Category Assignments. 

Healthcare and Social Assistance Four Components

Distribution of Losses 

Healthcare and Social Assistance is down 728,000 jobs (3.5%) but 426,000 of them are in Nursing and Residential Care and another 204,000 in Social Assistance.

Healthcare stand alone (not including Social Assistance) is down only 3.2%.

Percentage Declines 

• Health Care: -3.2%
• Health Care and Social Services: -3.5%
• Ambulatory Care: -0.1%
• Hospitals: -1.8%
• Social Assistance -4.8%
• Nursing and Residential Care: -12.6%

Nursing and Residential Care Employment

Strength in Ambulatory Care and Hospitals totally masks a huge crisis in Nursing and Residential Care and a smaller crisis in Social Assistance. 

Demand in these area is high and rising. Yet, throughout the entire Covid recession and recovery Nursing and Residential Care employment has fallen. 

That means you cannot pin this on vaccine requirements. 

Employment in the sector fell another 37,000 in September from 2.991 million to 2.954 million. Perhaps some of that is vaccine-related.

What kind of care do you think those in nursing homes are receiving?