5 Signs That Indicate If Trade Tension Are Getting Better or Worse

US Markets

• S&P 500 Futures +75 basis points
• US 10-Year 1.52%
• US 10-Year minus US 2-Year +0.004%
• Oil $54.83
• Dollar Index 97.96
• VIX 19.80

International Markets

• Shanghai -1.17%
• HSI -1.91%
• KOSPI -1.64%
• Nikkei -2.17%
• Germany +0.57%
• UK -0.47%

Stocks are moving higher this morning after news broke early today that the US and China are heading back to the table to talk trade. In all honesty, to make an investment decision based on all of this back and forth is nearly impossible.

The one significant takeaway that continues to hold is that a lot of these significant downdrafts in the markets on China worries one way or another result in a recovery. I think the primary reason for this is that President Trump very much cares about the stock market and its performance. As long as that remains the case, I think the declines are some insulated.

S&P 500 Futures (ES)

We can see that the futures are sharply off their lows. Also, notice how the futures on the S&P 500 did not make new lows. This is a similar pattern to what I noted over the weekend in other asset classes. 

S&P 500 (SPY) Cash

However, for the S&P 500 cash resistance will hover around 2872, and then the 2900 region.

Dollar/Yen (FXY)

One sign that tensions are easing will be to watch the Dollar/Yen. The Yen is weakening today rising back to around 106. As I tell my subscribers regularly, a yen that is falling towards 100 is strengthening and indicting fears are rising. Meanwhile, an increase towards 110 indicates that fears are easing.

VIX (VXX)

The VIX needs to continue to fall and as long as it stay below 20, there is a chance it moves lower towards 17.5, which should help to lift equity prices.

Apple (AAPL)

Apple is one stock that is a must-watch with resistance at $209.50.

Silver ETF (SLV)

Silver is pushing over $16.40 and could be pushing towards $17.25

iShares 20+ Year ETF (TLT)

I also continue to believe that TLT is heading lower towards $135.