5 Pieces Of Housing Market Data To Track

Housing market data tells us how people are feeling about their job security and wage growth. It also tells us how well the overall economy is doing, as it has a large ripple effect.

This week, we continue our series on what data traders should be tracking by focusing on housing and real estate trends. (My previous posts covered economic data and manufacturing data)

Each month, key housing data is released that provides us with a good view of how the real estate market fared over the past month.

Because this data is skewed by a time lag, the best way for us to analyze the data is through a rolling moving average. I prefer to look at three-month rolling moving averages to determine where the trend is. This helps filter out some of the short-term noise that creates inconsistencies in data interpretation.

Housing market data to track

Existing home sales

This data is tracked by the National Association of Realtors and measures closed transactions of single family homes, condos, townhomes, and co-op apartments. Because it accounts for about 90% of all home sales, it tell us a lot about how people are feeling about their job security now and into the future. The number of new home sales fills in that other 10%.

New home sales

New homes sales are tracked by the US Census and Department of Housing and Urban Development. This report includes the total number of new houses available for sale, broken down by construction stage: not yet started, under construction, and completed.

Aside from telling us about job security, new home sales affect employment numbers and local economies. A large number of people are employed during the construction stage, and they spend money on housing, retail, food, etc.

Housing prices

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index tracks changes in single-family residential real estate prices nationally across major metro areas. It’s published monthly using a three-month moving average. The index gives us a snapshot of the effect inflation is having on supply and demand.

Housing starts and permits

Speaking of supply and demand, new housing is only built if builders believe there’s demand for it. Therefore, the more new construction projects, the healthier the economy.

Housing inventory

Housing inventory and active listings data is published by Realtor and Redfin each month. This tells us about the supply-side of the housing market – the number of active listings, year-over-year inventory growth, and number of days on the market. If the number of days on the market grows, it tells us that demand is slowing.

We can dig further and gather so much more information from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, including charge-offs, bankruptcies, delinquencies, and commercial real estate loans. But the above five pieces of housing market data are the best place to start.

When the housing market is strong – people are buying, new homes are going up – the economy is, too. When sales slow, the economy is slowing, too.

The current housing market is an interesting mix. Inventory has spiked, making it a buyer’s market in many regions. But even though prices have dropped or at least evened out, high mortgage rates are keeping a lot of people on the sidelines.