19 September 2014: ECRI's WLI Insignificantly Declines

ECRI's WLI Growth Index insignificantly declined , remaining in positive territory being range bound around 2.0 - and forecasting little growth over the next six months.

 

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index

Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI's recession call.

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Growth Declines

Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to show expansion.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index declined insignificantly from 2.1% (originally published as 2.1%) to 2.0%  - and, the level of the index declined from 135.6 (originally released last week as 135.6) to 134.9.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The September update for August shows the rate of economic growth continuing to decline month-to-month:

U.S. Coincident Index

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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. 

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge

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Future Inflation Gauge Remains at 71-Month High

U.S. inflationary pressures were flat in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge remained 106.9 from the unrevised July 106.9 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"With the USFIG almost at a six-year high, underlying inflation pressures have clearly risen since last fall," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The August's economy's rate of growth (released in September) improved.

U.S. Lagging Index

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source: ECRI