10 Yr Note & 30 Yr Bond - Elliott Wave Weekly Update

Technical Analyst & Trader • Oct 24, 2026 at 9:55 AM EDT • Updated Oct 24, 2026 at 9:55 AM EDT

Elliott Wave analysis signals more downside for 10-year notes and 30-year Treasury bonds despite recent flight-to-safety rallies.

In this week's update I take a look at the 30-year Treasury bond and the 10-year note. I explained that the 30-year bond was inside a primary degree A wave down, with intermediate waves 1 through 4 complete and the market currently in intermediate wave 5. I identified a minute wave 4 rally in progress and noted a resistance cluster between 109.05 and 109.25. I discussed how geopolitical tensions and inflation data, including CPI and PPI, were influencing a "flight to safety" into US Treasuries. I also mentioned the FedWatch tool, noting a low probability of a rate hike on October 28. For the 10-year note, I observed a similar structure with a minute wave 4 rally and a target area around 106.31 to 107. I concluded that while short-term rallies were possible, the overall outlook remained bearish with further downside expected.

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