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The Cleveland Fed nowcast for February 2026 as of today is 2.34%.
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Figure 1: Year-on-Year headline CPI inflation (bold blue), CPI ex-shelter (red), Truflation inflation (green). Truflation measures are at mid-month, except for February, which is for 2/8/2026. CPI-headline January and February 2026 observation is Cleveland Fed nowcasts of 2/8/2026. Source: BLS, Truflation, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.
If the true underlying y/y inflation rate is 0.68%, we must be coming close to deflation, which typically accompanies very slow growth in aggregate demand.
See more discussion relating to the Truflation index here.
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