Voters Have Spoken, Now Markets Speak

Just because it's so doesn't make it right. 

The voters in the US have spoken and their choice will reverberate for years to come. What dispassionate investors are advised to do right now is focus on the message of the market and for that, we turn to the long-term Mega Trend. 

In future comments, I will go into many of the issues - both fundamental and technical - regarding the investment strategy consequences of the Trump victory. For now, a quick assessment on the major market trend should help put the more immediate market action in perspective. 

The following chart is a 22 year history of the Mega Trend (see description below) for the S&P 500. There have been 10 signals generated: 5 up (green arrows), 2 down (red arrows), and 3 false signals (blue arrows). The false signals are generated when a trend reversal has occurred (e.g. up to down) only to be reversed itself within a 3 month period of time, thereby re-establishing the prior trend. 

Today's global market reaction notwithstanding, the current trend is bullish and must be respected. Until this trend is reversed, prudent investors are advised to remain positive as to the primary trend of the US stock market. Reasons to temper this bullishness have been stated over the past several years and will be elaborated on in detail in future comments with a special focus on the likely consequences of a Trump presidency. In the meantime: buckle up!

Mega Trend: when price crosses its moving averages (50 and 200 day expressed in the weekly chart as 10 and 40 week), moving averages cross one another (50 over or under the 200 day), and, importantly, the slope of both moving averages point in the direction of the crossovers, the Mega Trend is established. 

Disclosure: Accounts managed by Blue Marble Research may presently hold a long/short position in the above mentioned issues and their inverse comparables.

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