Still Waiting

We’re still waiting to see if the market is going to roll over at trend or have a strong break to the upside. Twitter sentiment for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) had a small break of its tight range last week, but then quickly recovered. It’s bumping up against the zero level again just as price on SPX is testing its downtrend line. That leaves us waiting for a break one way or another.

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Breadth calculated from the most bullish stocks on Twitter and the most bearish turned back up this week. This is a constructive change from the behavior of the last three weeks where price pushed higher, but breadth fell.

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Support and resistance levels tweeted by traders are still showing the same price targets. On the upside, 2080 and 2100 are the most tweeted levels for SPX. The market traded right up to 2080 this week, then paused at Twitter resistance. There’s not much anticipation for prices above 2100. This indicates indecision and waiting by many market participants. They want to see an upside break before committing more money.

Below the market 2020 and 1810 are still the most tweeted levels, although with less frequency. This is a small indication that most people are looking to see if the market can break to the upside rather than worrying a lot about the downside.

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Sector sentiment was constructive this week with leading sectors getting positive tweets and defensive sectors garnering negative tweets.

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Conclusion

We’re still waiting to see if the market can break its down trend line or if it’s going to turn over. Sentiment is still in a tight range, but breadth, price targets, and sector sentiment were all constructive. That gives a tiny edge to the bulls.

Disclosure: None.

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