Retail Sales – Relax, Everything’s Fixed

At least that is the spin coming out of some of the talking heads today who are crying up a decent U.S. retail sales number as proof positive that the U.S. economy is not in that bad of a shape.

When you add to that more short covering in the crude oil coming on the heels of that suspicious WSJ story about potential OPEC production cuts, the safe havens are all being jettisoned today as the “Let’s get back to RISK” sentiment is dominating.

Heck, even the US Dollar is higher today after getting a beating this week.

From what I can see however, the volume on these moves today is small by comparison to what we have been seeing this week. That tells me this pop higher in stocks is without a lot of conviction and that the moves in the currency markets are as well.

Also, China will be open Sunday night while the US is closed for the President’s Day holiday on Monday. That could make for some very tricky situations for anyone holding oversized positions.

What you are seeing is Algos Gone Wild. Those things work by sniffing out the volume and when the volume dries up going in one direction, they all reverse and go the other. Doesn’t matter whether it is up or down.

They are extremely short-term oriented in their view so anyone with a perspective any longer than a single trading day is often baffled by the effect they produce in the markets that they infest.

I must admit that gold is actually holding very well given this move away from Safe Havens today. Also, the HUI is actually higher. That is improving the HUI-Gold ratio further.

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Gold so far has held at the initial support level shown on the Daily Chart.

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I expect dips in the price of the metal to be bought since the conditions that have given rise to gold are still in place and do not look to be going away anytime soon.

On the equity market front, that 1800 level has now taken on a great deal of significance. Any close below that level will now bode for the potential for a very sharp fall in this index with 1740 easily attainable in such an event.

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Crude oil has held at the January low just above $26 and is moving higher today with technicians running the market after yesterday’s bounce off of that key downside support level.

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The US Dollar is also holding at the support level near 95.50 basis USDX but looks heavy. The shift in sentiment among investors when it comes to the potential for an interest rate hike here in the US has brought the Dollar under pressure as it weakened the interest rate differential play that has been lending it so much buying support.

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If it comes under any further pressure next week and loses 95.50, it will easily drop to 95.00 for starters with 94.70 in play. Below there and it goes to 94.00-93.80.

Technicals favor the bears and have yet to show any signs of a bottoming action.

Any additional move lower would tremendously benefit gold.

Disclaimer: The charts and analysis I provide are not recommended for trading purposes but are instead intended to convey general technical analysis principles. ...

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