Week 47 of 2018 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The economically intuitive sectors marginally declined this week - the rolling averages advanced further into contraction.

Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data

The overall rate of rail growth in 2018 has slowly decelerating.

We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal, grain and petroleum are removed from the analysis for carloads, this week it contracted 2.5 %. We primarily use rolling averages the analyze the data due to weekly volatility - and the 4 week rolling average for the intuitive sectors was declined from -1.8 % to -1.9 %.

Intermodal transport (containers or trailers on rail cars) growth has been relatively strong and grew 4.3 % YoY.

The following graph compares the four week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):

.This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).

A summary for this week from the AAR:

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 470,851 carloads and intermodal units, up 3 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending November 24 were 232,954 carloads, up 1.7 percent compared with the same week in 2017, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 237,897 containers and trailers, up 4.3 percent compared to 2017.

Seven of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2017. They included petroleum and petroleum products, up 3,501 carloads, to 12,329; grain, up 1,373 carloads, to 20,061; and chemicals, up 846 carloads, to 27,851. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2017 were nonmetallic minerals, down 3,147 carloads, to 25,346; farm products excl. grain, and food, down 461 carloads, to 14,013; and motor vehicles and parts, down 202 carloads, to 14,132.

For the first 47 weeks of 2018, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 12,343,939 carloads, up 1.8 percent from the same point last year; and 13,083,203 intermodal units, up 5.6 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 47 weeks of 2018 was 25,427,142 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 3.7 percent compared to last year.

The middle row in the table below removes coal, grain, and petroleum from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.

[click on graph below to enlarge]