Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action at $6,446.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades may only be taken until 5pm Tokyo time, within the next 24-hour period.

Long Trades

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $6,353 or $6,171.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trades

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $6,646, $6,534 or $6,811.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that I saw a move down as slightly more likely to happen as there was a confluence of a long-term bearish trend line and horizontal resistance at $6,643 so a short from a bearish reversal here looks like the most interesting possible trade which might set up today. The price never reached that resistance level but taking a more bearish bias was a good call as the price has moved down and become established below $6,446 which has now flipped to become new lower resistance. Although the price has been a bit flat over recent hours, the picture still looks broadly bearish. I have a bearish bias today below $6,446 and above $6,353.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data at 1:15pm London time, followed by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 3pm. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will be giving a minor speech at 9pm.