Last Thursday’s signals gave losing trades at both $6,443 and $6,569 – both levels acted as resistance, but the trades did not advance far enough into profit to break even. However, I did take a bullish bias above the first resistance level.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades may only be taken until 5pm Tokyo time, during the next 24-hour period.

Long Trades

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $6,367 or $6,171.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trades

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $6,569 or $6,641.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote last Thursday that the picture was looking more bullish, with $6,443 likely to be the day’s pivotal level. I was correct in that, as the price broke strongly above that resistance and continued to rise all the way to $6,811. The price sold off quite heavily there and has been falling with some good momentum over recent days.

The long-term picture does look bearish, although there has been strong support at $6,171. It looks likely that $6,367 is today’s pivotal level, and if the price cannot break below here over the next few hours, it is likely to rise, although it might be a struggle as there has been quite a lot of selling lately. If the price can break down, it is likely to continue to $6,200.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of CB Consumer Confidence data at 3pm London time.