Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bearish price action at $6,569 or $6,643.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time, over the next 24-hour period only.

Long Trades

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $6,446 or $6,353 or $6,171.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trades

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $6,643 or $6,811.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote last Thursday that I saw the most exciting, interesting places for strong, medium-term reversals as both $6,171 and $6,643. The price actually broke strongly above the resistance at $6,643 but has returned to settle in its area where it tends to be more settled. The long-term technical picture shows a consolidating triangle and a continuing absence of any real trend. This suggests that the best trades will be any strong reversals off key levels in either direction. I see a move down as slightly more likely to happen as there is a confluence of a long-term bearish trend line and horizontal resistance at $6,643 so a short from a bearish reversal here looks like the most interesting possible trade which might set up today.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Regarding the USD, the Chair of the Federal Reserve will be giving a minor speech at 3pm London time.