Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was insufficiently bullish price action when both the support levels were hit.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades may be taken before 5pm Tokyo time today, over the next 24-hour period only.

Long Trades

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $4,137.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trades

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $4,982 or $5,187.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that the situation looked more bearish still now, with the price reaching yet lower 1-year lows. I took a bearish bias below $4,982 and this worked out very well as the price has continued to fall sharply to even lower 1-year lows close to $4,000. The price of Bitcoin has now fallen by almost 80% since December, and I notice my twitter feed has a lot less tweets from people claiming Bitcoin is about to change the world! There is no reason not to be bearish, but watch out for the support at $4,137.

(Click on image to enlarge)

There is nothing important due today regarding the USD.