Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached that day.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time, over the next 24-hour period.

Long Trades

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $6,353, $6,263, or $6,171.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trades

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $6,679 or $6,811.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote last Thursday that the wider picture had become increasingly bearish, nothing this had been happening ever since the bullish channel broke down a few days ago.

I wanted to take a bearish bias today below $6,171 as it looked unlikely that the price will get there over the short term, so if it did, that would be a bearish sign.

The price held above $6,171 most of the day before dipping below it very briefly for just a few hours, after which time the price held flat and the level continued to hold as support, then just a few hours ago the price suddenly spiked up by almost 10% in 2 hours. Over the last 3 hours, most of that gain has been given back.

Bitcoin is prone these days to sudden huge spikes which then tail off with no residual volatility. This is strange and after a huge spike like this it is probably best to stay away, although a long trade from a bounce at the new higher support of $6,353 might be interesting.

I have no directional bias today.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Retail Sales data at 1:30pm London time.